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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 40

Washington Commanders 24 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:32) (No Huddle) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 26-J.McNichols up the middle to ARI 25 for 15 yards (16-M.Melton, 3-B.Baker).

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.40 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model