4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 19

Washington Commanders 24 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 3-A.Seibert 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.97 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP