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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 51

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Washington Commanders 27

What Actually Happened

(2:11) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 18-M.Harrison ran ob at WAS 32 for 19 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.41 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 51, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model