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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 65

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 11-J.Stout punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 23, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model