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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 87

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 8-R.Rehkow punts 49 yards to BAL 38, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 16-T.Wallace to BAL 49 for 11 yards (27-J.Battle).

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.70 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 87, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 45, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model