4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 8-R.Rehkow punts 66 yards to BAL 2, impetus ends at BAL 2, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-26-T.Anderson.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.09 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model