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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 9 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 8-R.Rehkow punts 36 yards to BAL 14, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 50, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP