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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 38

Baltimore Ravens 35 – Cincinnati Bengals 38

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 9-J.Tucker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.80 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.61 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model