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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 38 – Baltimore Ravens 38

What Actually Happened

(:09) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to BAL 11, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.08 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -1.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 26, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model