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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 50

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 11-J.Stout punts 36 yards to CIN 14, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.85 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 50, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.82 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model