Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 65

Carolina Panthers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

(13:32) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to CHI 18, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-48-T.Incoom.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model