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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 63

Chicago Bears 27 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:23) 19-T.Taylor punts 41 yards to CAR 22, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-22-E.Hicks.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.27 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model