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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 15

Chicago Bears 27 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 8-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model