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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 42

Carolina Panthers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 5-Di.Johnson left end to CHI 38 for 4 yards (9-J.Brisker).

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.88 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 42, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model