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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 62

Chicago Bears 30 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(:41) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to CAR 14, Center-46-S.Daly. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 23 for 9 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.19 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP