Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 65

Carolina Panthers 7 – Chicago Bears 7

(2:20) 10-J.Hekker punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.56 EP
76% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model