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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 36

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 17-B.Aubrey 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.76 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.05 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -3.13 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP