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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 20

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 17-B.Aubrey 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-I.Loudermilk), Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger, recovered by DAL-86-L.Schoonmaker at PIT 27.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.02 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model