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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 44

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(7:30) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris left guard to DAL 43 for 1 yard (13-D.Overshown, 58-M.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.79 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model