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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 71

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to PIT 26, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.62 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model