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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 59

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to GB 8, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-84-H.Long. PENALTY on GB-22-R.Rochell, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at GB 8.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.84 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP