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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 46

Los Angeles Rams 19 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 23-K.Williams up the middle to GB 43 for 3 yards (33-E.Williams; 21-E.Stokes).

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.63 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.65 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model