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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 38

Los Angeles Rams 19 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(1:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 86-C.Parkinson [56-E.Cooper].

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.31 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.61 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.82 EP