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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 4

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 86-C.Parkinson.

The Three Options

GO +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.44 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model