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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 65

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 8-R.Sanchez punts 60 yards to JAX 5, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-D.Duvernay to JAX 15 for 10 yards (50-S.Olubi; 85-A.Ogletree).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.93 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 65, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 23, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model