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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 12

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 7-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.13 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 12, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model