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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 93

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 8-R.Sanchez punts 65 yards to JAX 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-D.Duvernay to IND 19 for 53 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.01 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 93, worth -5.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.85 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 51, worth -2.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model