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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 19

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 27

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 7-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.17 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 19, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model