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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 52

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.74 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 52, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.79 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model