Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 16-J.Bailey punt is BLOCKED by 41-B.Schooler, Center-48-B.Ferguson, recovered by MIA-16-J.Bailey at MIA 21. 16-J.Bailey to MIA 23 for 2 yards (15-M.Mapu; 24-D.Pettus). FUMBLES (15-M.Mapu), RECOVERED by NE-29-I.Bolden at MIA 23.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.07 EP
70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 69, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model