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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 87

New England Patriots 7 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to MIA 44, Center-49-J.Cardona. 0-B.Berrios pushed ob at NE 44 for 12 yards (53-C.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.11 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 87, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 45, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model