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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 20

New England Patriots 7 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 13-J.Slye 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.17 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 20, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model