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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 43

New England Patriots 10 – Miami Dolphins 9

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.61 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model