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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 23

Miami Dolphins 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(:02) 7-J.Sanders 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.93 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 23, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model