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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 8

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.21 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 8, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP