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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 16

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.53 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 16, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model