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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 33

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.60 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model