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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 20 at the 58

New Orleans Saints 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 43-M.Hayball punts 48 yards to KC 10, Center-49-Z.Wood. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 16 for 6 yards (46-A.Prentice).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.37 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model