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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 41

New Orleans Saints 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(9:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 84-M.Tipton [27-C.Conner].

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.65 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model