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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 20

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.70 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 20, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.87 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -1.13 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model