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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 52

New Orleans Saints 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 26

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Shotgun) 3-J.Haener pass incomplete deep right to 12-C.Olave (35-Ja.Watson).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.17 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 52, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.61 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model