Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 80

New Orleans Saints 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(2:37) 43-M.Hayball punts 53 yards to KC 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 17-M.Hardman to KC 40 for 13 yards (36-R.Payton; 24-J.Abram).

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.23 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 80, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model