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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 54

Seattle Seahawks 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to NYG 14, Center-41-C.Stoll. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 22 for 8 yards (19-J.Bobo, 86-P.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.56 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 54, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model