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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 65

New York Giants 10 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 6-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to SEA 29, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.11 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 23, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model