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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 65

Seattle Seahawks 13 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 27 for -8 yards (0-B.Burns).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.91 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 65, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 23, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model