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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 6

New York Giants 20 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 34-G.Joseph 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.10 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 6, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP