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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 72

New York Giants 23 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 6-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to SEA 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 33-D.Williams to SEA 34 for 7 yards (59-C.Kreiter).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.07 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 30, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model