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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 63

Seattle Seahawks 20 – New York Giants 29

What Actually Happened

(:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 28 for -9 yards (97-D.Lawrence).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.32 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 63, worth -0.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 21, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model