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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 42

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(10:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-D.Mooney pushed ob at TB 28 for 14 yards (35-J.Dean).

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.48 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model