4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 18

Green Bay Packers 14 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 44-B.Narveson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.10 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model